The COVID Economic Recovery Index assesses how 122 countries are positioned to weather the economic impact of the pandemic and recover from the crisis.
The COVID19 pandemic has affected all countries indiscriminately. However, given the large differences between countries in economic and socio-political terms when they entered the crisis, the depth of the impact, the rigor and duration of the containment measures, the recovery is unlikely to be symmetrical, and certainly not simultaneous.
Absorptive Capacity assesses the degree to which the COVID shock can affect the economy. Two factors that influence the absorptive capacity are the structure of the economy and the economic fundamentals prior to the crisis.
Quick take-aways: What will drive recovery?
The speed at which a country’s trading partners recover will largely drive its recovery. In trade blocks, such as the EU, joint, concerted action is therefore crucial.
The degree of digitalisation throughout society and the economy has been critical in mitigating impact for some sectors and will be critical to recovery and rebuilding.
Social security systems and agile labour policies have played a huge role in shielding livelihoods during the crisis, and will continue to do so for some time.
Education, training and re-skilling capacity will play a key role in recovery and for future transformation.
A greater focus on inclusion and equality improves resilience to health risks.
Just as social capital and trust in government were important for the success of containment, it will be important for the long-haul recovery that lies ahead.
Trade & recovery
Trade patterns are likely to influence recovery in a major way. Countries that export a significant share of their goods and services to markets that recover at a slower pace will also recover more slowly.
Vulnerable industries & jobs
As countries look to a recovery, two fundamental factors will play an important role: their exposure to industries likely to recover slowly or poorly and the strength of their labour markets and policies.
A landscape of recoveries
Absorptive capacity and economic resilience will play a major role in recoveries.